Commodities – Buyer Engagement

From a seller or a seller mandates point of view, the biggest time waster is the illusion that we are actually talking with a buyer, an authorised buyer mandate or agent.

Note all agents for publicly listed companies have to be lodged with the appropriate judiciary, the SCC for the USA or ASIC for Australia

However, normally we are taking to someone who says they are one of these, the end buyer, the authorised mandate or agent, but isn’t.

To combat this we have instituted a simple change, when asked we simply follow the process below.

1         Yes we can supply Crude and refined Oil products.

2         Yes we supply products CIF delivery at a discount (usually quantity dependant) below a local  benchmark (Except for Mazut which is generally sold at a fixed price)

3         But No, we won’t send an offer until the buyer has approved (in principle) our Conditions of contract

4         We then send out a file which includes our conditions of contract, upon which on agreement in principle to, we generate a fully authorised offer.

Silence usually follows, and Yes I would rather have silence than a full inbox and many deals, none of which are real.

Stercoll Energy Service – an Oil buyer

We were recently approached by a company acting for Stercoll Energy Services Ltd …  (Stercoll details below)  … we agreed to issue the FCO once we received a categorical confirmation of the acceptance of the offer including the procedures for such .. below is their confirmation of their acceptance, received ..on the 20th of July 2012

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Attn: Mr. David Sanders
Subj: D2 Gas Oil CIF Philippines

Status: Buyer, ready to proceed

Buyer has accepted all condition and oil specification offered by the seller, he is now ready to proceed. Please issue FCO a.s.a.p as per advised company and name of buyer via buyer’s designated information as stated below:_

Company Name: STERCOLL ENERGY SERVICE LTD.  INDONESIA
ATTENTION:        Mr. Datuk MYR UGUNG SIDYU
                            Director Asian Regional Head Quarters

Email:                  info@stercoll.com

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Buyers Website is :   www.stercoll.com

The Full Corporate offer was issued to this address on the 24th  of July 2012, it was valid for 5 days.

We were approached shortly after issuing the Full Corporate Offer from the Skype address, of chief.emeka kalu a person who said that they were the buyer for the main company Stercoll .. corporate details available on the above website.

Just before the end of the validity period this same contact sought to vary the procedures, despite receiving confirmation of their agreement to them as above.

We gave the buyer all help necessary within the procedures to move forward … the FCO expired on July 30th, 2012

No further contact was received from the buyer by way of explanation as to why they failed to proceed. This behavior is unprofessional and was unexpected, especially after they agreed to the whole offer including procedures before we would even consider issuing the offer.

For us this whole exercise was a waste of time … and an expensive one, as it meant that the oil was not available to other buyers during the preparation and validity period of the FCO.

The “buyer” proved to be a time waster … at the very least.

The end of business as usual …

Life is good for many of us, so that it’s hard to confront the change that is here, and with that the inevitable end of the quality of life that we see around us.

So it strikes me as obvious that the world is going down a road, in some ways where civilizations have gone before, but not for the same reasons, we are in fact going down a one way road, to the destruction of what is, that we have come to consider as normal.

The reasons are self evident, they come back to greed and the need for ever more growth, leveraged growth, more .. more …  all are unsustainable flawed strategies –  I ask you how can one achieve continual growth in a finite world … this insatiable need for more … we have been all living in a fantasy land, especially the Politicians, who are convinced as they focus on statistics and spin, that they are doing a great job when all around, their citizens are paying the price for their inability to have a real original thought – their incompetence, their lack of leadership, their focus only on re-election, their terror at the inevitability of change – drives them to makes nice little touches around the edge of policy whilst the heart of the country decays and we lumber forward, down the wrong path.

This insatiable greed of a few, has brought us beyond the brink of a global financial meltdown, we are in fact toppling over the edge into oblivion as we speak … whole countries and regions are already suffering in the Euro zone, but the whole world will be within the inevitability of what is to come … our mindless pursuit of the status quo .. has indebted the majority of those in the present to virtual serfdom whilst those in control … known colloquially as the 1% .. but who are in reality probably more like just 10,000 people around the word, are so afraid of change that they have convinced our Politicians (who are only driven by the need to be re-elected) that they need to maintain the status quo, this flawed and failed financial structure – which has little benefit to the majority 99+%, except more of the same. 

It is time we allowed the system to fail, we no longer have the ability to prop it up –  we have to stop, mortgaging future generation to pay for our mistakes or steal their birthright … our beautiful home, this spaceship called earth.

When I walk around cities, I see the crumbling structures, both in stone and in systems that are struggling to maintain what we once were, I see lots of papering over the cracks, whilst the infrastructure rusts and crumbles away in silence.

Within the decade we are in, what is hidden now, will become visible to all, in the first instance with the failure of the Euro$, where whole governments are desperately trying to hang on by their finger nails … they will fail … the inevitable collapse will spark a world wide financial meltdown that has never been witnessed in history. In the United States, cities and states are even now technically bankrupt … what will happen when the Euro zone of some other key point in the chain fails .. the banks will fail … there can be no bailout .. change will be here –  this global correction will affect everyone in every country, those who think they are immune are living in fantasy land – this new reality will inflict misery and unrelenting hardship on everyone.

It will not be fun … in fact I cannot see an upside in the short term … it may take a couple of decades perhaps a generation before we can get back on our knees … maybe as long as a 50 years to a century before we can stand up and face the future with any sort optimism … the only way we have any chance of a future, is by changing what we value.

The OWS … the Occupy movement is a symptom, and a necessary one …. in American the Constitution has been and is being continually being walk into the mud, whilst those in power seek to silence those who would say … we have a problem .. sadly, the world economy is past the ability to be healed … change is here Ladies and Gentlemen, hang on, because we are in for the ride of our lives, the destination, the abyss … some of us will come out the other side … but very few … for us to survive, and have the capacity to we will have to have the ability to think outside of the box and really work together without agendas, and realise that economies are not about numbers … they are about fully utilizing all of us, for the benefit of all of us ….

I have spoken of this before back in between 2008 and now … then it was a warning .. now it is too late … money will be irrelevant to our future … the accumulation of wealth for its own sake, is now past its use by date … when it happens, from then on, and in the short to medium term, the only thing that will matter is being able to be sustainable in food, in shelter and energy …

Good Luck …

Veritas Gravitas and the MBA Oath

Here is the website in question the MBA Oath

In my opinion it is window dressing, ethicsvalues and principles is not something you can swear a voluntary compliance with … it is something that you learn through life, either in essential relationship with your parents and during your childhood or you learn it in the military or in some sort of value driven public service organisation …. that actually does something … to the oath giver .. it is the basis of honour, truth, loyalty …. values which have a profound meaning …

For those that take the oath and it is not part of their soul, it will have no effect on their lives, the whole idea that you can swear a voluntary adherence to leading a  life based on ethics and principles is a nonsense …

It might look good on your PR brochure but it means nothing … as they will always default to the values that they learnt .. usually a reflection of the society as whole that values nothing, creates nothing .. and only values consumption and excess.. and money of course.

Only those leaders that have grown up in an ethical and principled based learning environment or those exceptional military leaders that know that the result of their work has to create value for all … such voluntary oaths are of no real value to society .. otherwise this comes back to the essence of society .. that it looks good, sounds good … but means nothing … unless you are swearing compliance with something that has teeth or means something to the oath giver … its just so much spin.

Which it seems all our society is about …

Its gets more political as we move forward .. it is about how it looks, how it sounds rather than how it actually is…

Greece and the Euro Zone

It hardly matters why Greece is in the mess they are in … they just are …

What is the future … whatever the way forward it is serious stuff … every which way you turn there are serious consequences.

What is sure is that the current situation cannot continue …

If Greece stays in the Union, the future for the people of Greece is dire … already there is severe unrest … and unless a political solution is found the only way that this will be resolved is on the streets. From the information I have been able to glean the average person, especially those who are on fixed income and pensions are in severe financial straits .. with no likely hood of a positive outcome in the foreseeable future …

Why is the Euro Zone trying so hard to keep Greece in the Union, aside from the obvious far from small crack it shows in the community, there is a benefit to the manufacturing countries within the Euro Zone because of the perceived financial problems of countries such a Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and even Italy … on the world markets this keeps the overall value of the Euro$ itself depressed ….

This has benefits for countries such a Germany, Italy and France with significant manufacturing sectors … by the virtue of Greece being part of the Union, the lower exchange rate works for these manufacturing countries …. as it makes their products competitive on the world stage …

If Greece and others leave the Union, aside from the financial meltdown that will affect Greece … it will strengthen the Euro and make their products more expensive … and less competitive … how do you think that this will affect those manufacturing countries  .. it will take them into a financial slowdown …

Really the future financial health of those manufacturing countries within the Euro zone … is in the hands of the Greek people ..

This is the reason I think that the Euro Zone wants to keep Greece in the Union …

Why is it that countries are beholding to the banks … all the assets of Greece will be sold off in a fire sale to placate the numbers me … what did the people of Greece do to deserve this …

Frankly I do not see the Greek people voting to stay within the Union …

Bonuses – This looks like a good idea

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Now with the European Union likely to legislate to specify how bonuses will be paid, for instance a large benefit is only able to have a 20% cash bonus… I am sure the affected people are even now re-structuring their pay to counteract this… perhaps by increasing the fixed component of the pay package…

In the United States it seems is not going to legislate, but issue guidelines… which I am sure that they will be bent, sidestepped and outright broken as a result.
However staying in the USA for a moment, something new has come to my attention…. a new basis for paying bonuses… as we know once of the companies, formerly a major casualty of the sub-prime fiasco and their own corporate greed at that time, has come up with what I believe is a solution… that Compensation for those who receive bonuses should be tied more closely to corporate debt rather than equity… what a resounding good idea, as well as responsible one… how unlike a Corporation.!

I am speaking here of AIG (American International Group) who announced that it will link incentive pay to the value of their insurer’s bonds.

This makes cowboy activities less likely, especially as a short term tactical strategy, and I hope this will turn the train around and move it back to responsibility not only to the company, the industry but also the shareholders – but also to the Corporate world in general.  I believe that these types of incentives protect the interest of bondholders and the ultimate value of the company… this will come to be a good strategy especially in uncertain times, and more particularly when a company’s solvency is in question.

Perhaps the rest of the world, particularly The European Union as well as all markets affected by this disease should take notice

Poland – a choice

My sympathies go out to the Polish people, friends and family of those travelling in the jet that crashed and killed the Polish President Lech Kaczynski, his wife Maria and many of the country’s political elite. In the upcoming weeks, the Polish people have a choice, lets hope they choose well for the future of Poland.

Please see the article from the Times here

As well a brief profile of the President and further background from France24.com is here

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Financial Crisis – an update

Before, during and now, after the initial developments in this financial crisis – business has gone on as it has in the past… a crucial element seems to have been overlooked… and that is necessary Change Management within these organisations… we need to change the way they think, otherwise we are just marking time until it all happens again in the USA or somewhere else in the Global community.

The Commercial World as always is being driven by improved margins, from the incredible daily profits experienced on Platforms, to productive companies dealing in providing end-user products and services – they are at least creating something that is tangible – down to Mr.& Mrs America being paid less than 5-10% per year (which is taxable) on their hard earned dollars… the difference between the rich and the poor is widening exponentially.

To me it seems that the basic premise of how these organisations function has not been seen as important… since the Glass-Steagall Act was revoked… we have been heading for this. The basic way these organisations operate has not changed… (although controls have and are being introduced) we still see organisations basically owned and controlled by various Governments around the world, still paying bonuses… outside of normal guidelines.. and these Governments seems to have no control, they are willing to use.

Meanwhile main street in the USA has to pay for all of this… it is something they do not understand… and like the stages of grief…. sure denial is one of them, however the other stages of grief need to be considered, one of them being anger… so I am not sure we have got to denial as yet, in the stages of grief; for their less than enviable debt burden, not of their making, why they are in debt, and most likely some generations to come will be…..

The reaction from Governments world wide has been lets run around and put out fires… this can be related to a Doctor treating the symptoms and not the cause… we are not out of the woods yet… it will take whole generations to change attitudes… if it is even possible, I do not see it as even possible until the basic premise of focus on short term reporting cycles, and the payment of unrealistic bonuses, changes within organisations – when we were in the middle of the crash we saw CEO’s and Senior people being given Golden parachutes basically being paid for their lack of focus, as they were obviously not concentrating on minding their businesses.

To date for the American people the only recourse for severe disappointment has been by the ballot box… I am not sure this will be their only recourse in the future.This is a significant system failure, and the underlying root cause has still not been addressed.

Change the way that the people that run these organisations, and then we are on a path to stable financial infrastructure… don’t and it is going to happen all over again.

US bank failures top 100 for year

From the BBC, we note that 100 banks have failed this year so far, the highest number since 1992 in fact, Bank failures have cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) fund that insures deposits an estimated $25bn this year

The FDIC is a fund that insures deposits at failed banks with a current limit of cover of USD$250,000 per account.

It notes that a large number of failures were in regional banks, where they could not respond to the crisis of failures at the onset of the crisis. The banks were largely deposit takers rather than Merchant banks, although it is now history that the crisis did expand to Lehman Brothers which collapsed and also serious issues for Merrill Lynch that was save from collapse by being bought by the Bank of America.

Here is the link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8323565.stm

Current Update on the Economic Crunch … to come..

From a letter by Hayman Advisors LLC we have the following extract….Daniel Hannan a member of the European Parliament said the following….

You cannot spend your way out of a recession or borrow your way out of debt….

See the whole article Here

So what exactly are we doing … well we are doing something that’s true…. better I think that the 1920’s depression when very little was done and most of it… too late..

So lets look at the US Economy today… where debt is at almost 40% of spending, some might say we are reaching a tipping point – running a war on two fronts is not helping – thought I might mention that – its very much time to get out of Iraq – stay in Afghanistan…which may tip the US economy into hyper-inflation…. cannot happen here….. I think thats called denial….

Australia is in a similar place with a budget of about AUD$350 Billion and deficit of A$50 billion growing…. perhaps they should talk to Daniel Hannan…?

Full details of the Australian Budget papers can be found here